A NOTE FROM SCOTT With the 82nd Venice, 52nd Telluride and fiftieth Toronto movie festivals and the 77th Primetime Emmy Awards now within the rearview mirror, the main target of the awards-industrial advanced — journalists, publicists and expertise — has shifted absolutely to the race to the 98th Oscars.
Since our final check-in, Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet (Focus) solidified its frontrunner standing by profitable Toronto’s viewers award, with Frankenstein and Wake Up Useless Man: A Knives Out Thriller (each Netflix) inserting second and third, respectively. Toronto’s viewers award is usually predictive of greatest image Oscar traction — Chariots of Hearth, American Magnificence, Slumdog Millionaire, The King’s Speech, 12 Years a Slave, Inexperienced Guide and Zhao’s 2020 movie Nomadland all received the previous and went on to win the latter — however not all the time (final 12 months’s winner, The Lifetime of Chuck, faces an uphill climb this season).
Venice, in the meantime, awarded its prime prize, the Golden Lion, to Father Mom Sister Brother (nonetheless looking for U.S. distribution). Amongst its different winners: Benny Safdie was named greatest director for The Smashing Machine (A24) and Toni Servillo was chosen as greatest actor for La Grazia (Mubi).
Again in LA, journalists who weren’t in Venice, together with myself, have simply seen Kathryn Bigelow’s A Home of Dynamite (Netflix). A directing tour-de-force and true ensemble piece, it’ll spark the identical type of concern and dialog concerning the proliferation of nuclear weapons that the 1983 ABC TV film The Day After — one of the vital watched TV packages of all time — did two generations in the past.
Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After One other (Warner Bros.) has additionally begun screening in LA. Many journalists caught it final week — I used to be nonetheless in Toronto, so I can be seeing it later this week — and it unspooled for Academy members on Saturday night time. Different member screenings final weekend included Kiss of the Spider Lady (Roadside), with Jennifer Lopez in attendance for a post-screening Q&A, and the documentary function Riefenstahl (Kino Lorber).
And, forward of the Oct. 1 submission deadline, one of the best worldwide function Oscar competitors is constant to form up. Probably the most vital latest information associated to that’s Brazil’s submission of The Secret Agent (Neon), which has been enjoying via the roof at competition and trade screenings, with author/director Kleber Mendonça Filho and lead actor Wagner Moura each trying like very sturdy contenders.
Moreover, Poland entered Kafka (nonetheless looking for U.S. distribution), the most recent movie from the good Agnieszka Holland, who has beforehand had movies chosen to signify Poland (2011’s In Darkness, which was nominated, and 2017’s Spoor), West Germany (1985’s Indignant Harvest, which was nominated) and the Czech Republic (2020’s Charlatan, which was shortlisted).
Please bear in mind: my forecasts don’t essentially mirror my private preferences. My goal is to not advocate for what I believe the members of the Academy of Movement Image Arts and Sciences ought to do, however moderately to undertaking what they will do. I arrive at my projections by screening many movies, analyzing their campaigns, talking with voters and learning related historical past and stats.
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Greatest Image
Picture Credit score: Agata Grzybowska / Focus Options Frontrunners
Hamnet (Focus)
Sentimental Worth (Neon)
Sinners (Warner Bros.)
A Home of Dynamite (Netflix)
The Secret Agent (Neon)
Jay Kelly (Netflix)
It Was Simply An Accident (Neon)
Bugonia (Focus)
Prepare Desires (Netflix)
Roofman (Paramount)Main Threats
The Smashing Machine (A24)
Nouvelle Imprecise (Netflix)
Springsteen: Ship Me from Nowhere (twentieth Century)
Rental Household (Searchlight)
Nuremberg (Sony Classics)
F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.)
Weapons (Warner Bros.)Potentialities
Frankenstein (Netflix)
Materialists (A24)
Warfare (A24)
Highest 2 Lowest (A24)
Useless Man’s Wire (Row Okay)
Die My Love (Mubi)Lengthy Photographs
The Lifetime of Chuck (Neon)
La Grazia (Mubi)
The Misplaced Bus (Apple)
Hedda (Amazon/MGM)
Kiss of the Spider Lady (Roadside)
Ballad of a Small Participant (Netflix)Nonetheless to See/Underneath Embargo
After the Hunt (Amazon/MGM)
Avatar: Hearth and Ash (twentieth Century)
Ella McCay (twentieth Century)
Is This Factor On? (Searchlight)
Marty Supreme (A24)
No Different Selection (Neon)
One Battle After One other (Warner Bros.)
Music Sung Blue (Focus)
Wake Up Useless Man: A Knives Out Thriller (Netflix)
Depraved: For Good (Common) -
Greatest Director
Picture Credit score: Pascal Le Segretain/Getty Photographs Frontrunners
Ryan Coogler for Sinners (Warner Bros.)
Chloé Zhao for Hamnet (Focus)
Joachim Trier for Sentimental Worth (Neon)
Kathryn Bigelow for A Home of Dynamite (Netflix)
Kleber Mendonça Filho for The Secret Agent (Neon)Main Threats
Noah Baumbach for Jay Kelly (Netflix)
Jafar Panahi for It Was Simply an Accident (Neon)
Yorgos Lanthimos for Bugonia (Focus)
Clint Bentley for Prepare Desires (Netflix)
Richard Linklater for Nouvelle Imprecise (Netflix) — podcast
Derek Cianfrance for Roofman (Paramount)
Benny Safdie for The Smashing Machine (A24)
Guillermo del Toro for Frankenstein (Netflix) — podcast 1 and 2Potentialities
Scott Cooper for Springsteen: Ship Me from Nowhere (Searchlight)
Hikari for Rental Household (Searchlight)
Celine Music for Materialists (A24) — podcast
Lynne Ramsay for Die My Love (Mubi)
Spike Lee for Highest 2 Lowest (A24) — podcast
Zach Cregger for Weapons (Warner Bros.)
Paolo Sorrentino for La Grazia (Mubi) — podcast
Gus Van Sant for Useless Man’s Wire (Row Okay)Lengthy Photographs
James Vanderbilt for Nuremberg (Sony Classics)
Eva Victor for Sorry, Child (A24)
Joseph Kosinski for F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.)
Alex Garland & Ray Mendoza for Warfare (A24)
Mike Flanagan for The Lifetime of Chuck (Neon)
Paul Greengrass for The Misplaced Bus (Apple) — podcast
Nia DaCosta for Hedda (Amazon/MGM)
Invoice Condon for Kiss of the Spider Lady (Roadside)Nonetheless to See/Underneath Embargo
Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After One other (Warner Bros.)
Craig Brewer for Music Sung Blue (Focus)
James L. Brooks for Ella McCay (twentieth Century)
James Cameron for Avatar: Hearth and Ash (twentieth Century)
Jon M. Chu for Depraved: For Good (Common)
Bradley Cooper for Is This Factor On? (Searchlight)
Luca Guadagnino for After the Hunt (Amazon/MGM)
Jim Jarmusch for Father Mom Sister Brother (nonetheless looking for U.S. distribution)
Rian Johnson for Wake Up Useless Man: A Knives Out Story (Netflix)
Park Chan-wook for No Different Selection (Neon)
Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme (A24) -
Greatest Actor
Picture Credit score: Netflix BEST ACTOR
Frontrunners
Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent (Neon)
George Clooney for Jay Kelly (Netflix) — podcast
Michael B. Jordan for Sinners (Warner Bros.) — podcast
Joel Edgerton for Prepare Desires (Netflix) — podcast
Jesse Plemons for Bugonia (Focus) — podcastMain Threats
Dwayne Johnson for The Smashing Machine (A24)
Channing Tatum for Roofman (Paramount)
Jeremy Allen White for Springsteen: Ship Me from Nowhere (Searchlight)
Brendan Fraser for Rental Household (Searchlight) — podcast
Toni Servillo for La Grazia (Mubi)
Invoice Skarsgård for Useless Man’s Wire (Row Okay)Potentialities
Colin Farrell for Ballad of a Small Participant (Netflix) — podcast
Cillian Murphy for Steve (Netflix) — podcast
Rami Malek for Nuremberg (Sony Classics) — podcast
Russell Crowe for Nuremberg (Sony Classics)
Oscar Isaac for Frankenstein (Netflix) — podcast
Denzel Washington for Highest 2 Lowest (A24) — podcastLengthy Photographs
Brad Pitt for F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.)
Matthew McConaughey for The Misplaced Bus (Apple) — podcast
Tonatiuh Elizarraraz for Kiss of the Spider Lady (Roadside)
Guillaume Marbeck for Nouvelle Imprecise (Netflix)
Josh Brolin for Weapons (Warner Bros.)
Tom Hiddleston for The Lifetime of Chuck (Neon) — podcastNonetheless to See/Underneath Embargo
Will Arnett for Is This Factor On? (Searchlight)
Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme (A24) — podcast
Daniel Craig for Wake Up Useless Man: A Knives Out Thriller (Netflix) — podcast
Daniel Day-Lewis for Anemone (Focus)
Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After One other (Warner Bros.)
Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon (Sony Classics) — podcast
Hugh Jackman for Music Sung Blue (Focus) — podcast
Robert Pattinson for Mickey 17 (Warner Bros.) — podcast -
Greatest Actress
Picture Credit score: Mia Cioffi Henry/Courtesy of Sundance Frontrunners
Jessie Buckley for Hamnet (Focus)
Renate Reinsve for Sentimental Worth (Neon)
Emma Stone for Bugonia (Focus) — podcast
Jennifer Lawrence for Die My Love (Mubi) — podcast
Sydney Sweeney for Christy (Black Bear) — podcastMain Threats
Rose Byrne for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24)
June Squibb for Eleanor the Nice (Sony Classics)
Jodie Foster for A Personal Life (Sony Classics) — podcast
Eva Victor for Sorry, Child (A24)Potentialities
Felicity Jones for Prepare Desires (Netflix)
Julia Garner for Weapons (Warner Bros.) — podcast
Tessa Thompson for Hedda (Amazon/MGM)Lengthy Photographs
Lucy Liu for Rosemead (Vertical) — podcast
Dakota Johnson for Materialists (A24) — podcast
Arienne Mandi for Tatami (Flawless)Nonetheless to See/Underneath Embargo
Cate Blanchett for Father Mom Sister Brother (nonetheless looking for U.S. distribution) — podcast 1 and 2
Laura Dern for Is This Factor On? (Searchlight)
Cynthia Erivo for Depraved: For Good (Common) — podcast
Emma Mackey for Ella McCay (twentieth Century)
Kate Hudson for Music Sung Blue (Focus) — podcast
Julia Roberts for After the Hunt (Amazon/MGM) — podcast -
Greatest Supporting Actor
Picture Credit score: Warner Bros. Frontrunners
Stellan Skarsgård for Sentimental Worth (Neon) — podcast
Adam Sandler for Jay Kelly (Netflix) — podcast
Paul Mescal for Hamnet (Focus)
Billy Crudup for Jay Kelly (Netflix)
William H. Macy for Prepare Desires (Netflix)Main Threats
Jeremy Sturdy for Springsteen: Ship Me from Nowhere (Searchlight) — podcast
Mark Hamill for The Lifetime of Chuck (Neon) — podcast
Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein (Netflix)
Michael Shannon for Nuremberg (Sony Classics) — podcast
Leo Woodall for Nuremberg (Sony Classics)
Ben Foster for Christy (Black Bear)Potentialities
Miles Caton for Sinners (Warner Bros.)
Jack O’Connell for Sinners (Warner Bros.)
Delroy Lindo for Sinners (Warner Bros.) — podcast
Stephen Graham for Springsteen: Ship Me from Nowhere (Searchlight)
Pedro Pascal for Materialists (A24)Lengthy Photographs
Idris Elba for A Home of Dynamite (Netflix)
Tracy Letts for A Home of Dynamite (Netflix)
Diego Luna for Kiss of the Spider Lady (Roadside) — podcast
Aubry Dullin for Nouvelle Imprecise (Netflix)
Robert Pattinson for Die My Love (Mubi) — podcast
Josh O’Connor for The Historical past of Sound (Mubi)Nonetheless to See/Underneath Embargo
Jonathan Bailey for Depraved: For Good (Common)
Sean Bean for Anemone (Focus)
Samuel Bottomley for Anemone (Focus)
Josh Brolin for Wake Up Useless Man: A Knives Out Thriller (Netflix)
Albert Brooks for Ella McCay (twentieth Century)
Bradley Cooper for Is This Factor On? (Searchlight)
Benicio Del Toro for One Battle After One other (Warner Bros.) — podcast
Adam Driver for Father Mom Sister Brother (nonetheless looking for U.S. distribution) — podcast
Andrew Garfield for After the Hunt (Amazon/MGM) — podcast
Woody Harrelson for Ella McCay (twentieth Century)
Jack Lowden for Ella McCay (twentieth Century)
Josh O’Connor for Wake Up Useless Man: A Knives Out Thriller (Netflix)
Sean Penn for One Battle After One other (Warner Bros.) — podcast
Andrew Scott for Blue Moon (Sony Classics)
Andrew Scott for Wake Up Useless Man: A Knives Out Thriller (Netflix)
Alexander Skarsgård for Pillion (A24) — podcast
Michael Stuhlbarg for After the Hunt (Amazon/MGM) -
Greatest Supporting Actress
Picture Credit score: Eros Hoagland/Netflix Frontrunners
Jennifer Lopez for Kiss of the Spider Lady (Roadside) — podcast
Emily Blunt for The Smashing Machine (A24) — podcast
Elle Fanning for Sentimental Worth (Neon) — podcast
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas for Sentimental Worth (Neon)
Amy Madigan for Weapons (Warner Bros.)Main Threats
Hailee Steinfeld for Sinners (Warner Bros.) — podcast
Kirsten Dunst for Roofman (Paramount) — podcast
Kerry Condon for Prepare Desires (Netflix)
Zoey Deutch for Nouvelle Imprecise (Netflix) — podcast
Nina Hoss for Hedda (Amazon/MGM)Potentialities
Rebecca Ferguson for A Home of Dynamite (Netflix)
Odessa Younger for Springsteen: Ship Me from Nowhere (twentieth Century)
Wunmi Mosaku for Sinners (Warner Bros.)
Emily Watson for Hamnet (Focus)
Laura Dern for Jay Kelly (Netflix)Lengthy Photographs
Milvia Marigliano for La Grazia (Mubi)
Tânia Maria for The Secret Agent (Neon)
Sissy Spacek for Die My Love (Mubi) — podcast
Mia Goth for Frankenstein (Netflix)
Zar Amir Ebrahimi for Tatami (Flawless)Nonetheless to See/Underneath Embargo
Odessa A’zion for Marty Supreme (A24)
Glenn Shut for Wake Up Useless Man: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix) — podcast
Jamie Lee Curtis for Ella McCay (twentieth Century)
Ayo Edebiri for After the Hunt (Amazon/MGM)
Ariana Grande for Depraved: For Good (Common) — podcast
Regina Corridor for One Battle After One other (Warner Bros.)
Chase Infiniti for One Battle After One other (Warner Bros.)
Vicky Krieps for Father Mom Sister Brother (nonetheless looking for U.S. distribution)
Samantha Morton for Anemone (Focus)
Safia Oakley-Inexperienced for Anemone (Focus)
Gwyneth Paltrow for Marty Supreme (A24)
Margaret Qualley for Blue Moon (Sony Classics)
Chloë Sevigny for After the Hunt (Amazon/MGM) — podcast
Teyana Taylor for One Battle After One other (Warner Bros.)
Kerry Washington for Wake Up Useless Man: A Knives Out Thriller (Netflix) — podcast
Sigourney Weaver for Avatar: Hearth and Ash (twentieth Century) -
Greatest Tailored Screenplay
Picture Credit score: twentieth Century Studios Frontrunners
Hamnet (Focus) — Chloé Zhao
Bugonia (Focus) — Will Tracy
Prepare Desires (Netflix) — Clint Bentley & Greg Kwedar
Nouvelle Imprecise (Netflix) — Holly Gent, Michèle Halberstadt, Laetitia Masson & Vincent Palmo
Springsteen: Ship Me from Nowhere (Searchlight) — Scott CooperMain Threats
Nuremberg (Sony Classics) — James Vanderbilt
Die My Love (Mubi) — Alice Birch, Lynne Ramsay & Enda Walsh
The Lifetime of Chuck (Neon) — Mike FlanaganPotentialities
Frankenstein (Netflix) — Guillermo del Toro — podcast 1 and 2
Hedda (Amazon/MGM) — Nia DaCosta
Ballad of a Small Participant (Netflix) — Rowan JofféLengthy Photographs
Highest 2 Lowest (A24) — Alan Fox
The Misplaced Bus (Apple) — Paul Greengrass & Brad Ingelsby — podcast (Greengrass)
The Historical past of Sound (Mubi) — Ben ShattuckNonetheless to See/Underneath Embargo
Avatar: Hearth and Ash (twentieth Century) — James Cameron, Rick Jaffa & Amanda Silver
One Battle After One other (Warner Bros.) — Paul Thomas Anderson
Music Sung Blue (Focus) — Craig Brewer
Wake Up Useless Man: A Knives Out Thriller (Netflix) — Rian Johnson
Depraved: For Good (Common) — Dana Fox & Winnie Holzman -
Greatest Unique Screenplay
Picture Credit score: Paramount Footage Frontrunners
Sentimental Worth (Neon) — Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt
Sinners (Warner Bros.) — Ryan Coogler
A Home of Dynamite (Netflix) — Noah Oppenheim
Jay Kelly (Netflix) — Noah Baumbach & Emily Mortimer
The Secret Agent (Neon) — Kleber Mendonça FilhoMain Threats
It Was Simply an Accident (Neon) — Jafar Panahi
Materialists (A24) — Celine Music
Roofman (Paramount) — Derek Cianfrance & Kirt Gunn
Rental Household (Searchlight) — Stephen Blahut & Hikari
The Smashing Machine (A24) — Benny SafdiePotentialities
Weapons (Warner Bros.) — Zach Cregger
Warfare (A24) — Alex Garland & Ray Mendoza
Sorry, Child (A24) — Eva Victor
Left-Handed Woman (Netflix) — Sean Baker & Shih-Ching Tsou — podcast (Baker)
Useless Man’s Wire (Row Okay) — Austin KolodneyLengthy Photographs
A Personal Life (Sony Classics) — Anne Berest, Gaëlle Macé & Rebecca Zlotowski
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24) — Mary Bronstein
Eleanor the Nice (Sony Classics) — Tory Kamen
F1 (Apple/Warner Bros.) — Ehren Kruger
The Phoenician Scheme (Focus) — Wes Anderson & Roman CoppolaNonetheless to See/Underneath Embargo
After the Hunt (Amazon/MGM) — Nora Garrett
Anemone (Focus) — Daniel Day-Lewis & Ronan Day-Lewis
Ella McCay (twentieth Century) — James L. Brooks
Father Mom Sister Brother (nonetheless looking for U.S. distribution) — Jim Jarmusch
Is This Factor On? (Searchlight) — Will Arnett, Mark Chappell & Bradley Cooper
Marty Supreme (A24) — Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie
The Mastermind (Mubi) — Kelly Reichardt -
Greatest Worldwide Function
Picture Credit score: Netflix Frontrunners
*Norway — Sentimental Worth (Neon)
*Brazil — The Secret Agent (Neon)
France — Nouvelle Imprecise (Netflix)
France — It Was Simply an Accident (Neon)
Italy — La Grazia (Mubi)Main Threats
*Germany — Sound of Falling (Mubi)
*Ukraine — 2000 Meters to Andriivka (PBS)
Spain — Sirāt (Neon)
*Taiwan — Left-Handed Woman (Netflix)
France — A Personal Life (Sony Classics)Nonetheless to See/Underneath Embargo
*Czech Republic — I’m Not All the things I Wish to Be (nonetheless looking for U.S. distribution)
*Poland — Kafka (nonetheless looking for U.S. distribution)
*Switzerland — Late Shift (nonetheless looking for U.S. distribution)
*Iceland — The Love That Stays (nonetheless looking for U.S. distribution)
*Chile — The Mysterious Gaze of the Flamingo (nonetheless looking for U.S. distribution)
*South Korea — No Different Selection (Neon)
*Iraq — The President’s Cake (Sony Classics)
*Canada — The Issues You Kill (nonetheless looking for U.S. distribution)
*Tunisia — The Voice of Hind Rajab (nonetheless looking for U.S. distribution)
*Belgium — Younger Moms (Music Field)*denotes official submission
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Greatest Documentary Function
Picture Credit score: Bayerische Staatsbibliothek Bildarchiv/Venice Movie Pageant Frontrunners
Apocalypse within the Tropics (Netflix)
2000 Meters to Andriivka (PBS)
The Good Neighbor (Netflix)
My Mother Jayne (HBO)
The Alabama Answer (HBO)Main Threats
Riefenstahl (Kino Lorber)
Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Stroll (Kino Lorber)
Come See Me within the Good Gentle (Apple)
Deaf President Now! (Apple)
Folktales (Magnolia)
Prime Minister (Magnolia)
Orwell: 2+2=5 (Neon)Potentialities
Predators (MTV)
One to One: John & Yoko (Magnolia)
Grand Theft Hamlet (Mubi)
The Man Who Saves the World? (Space 23a)
The Eyes of Ghana (nonetheless looking for U.S. distribution)
Sly Lives! (aka The Burden of Black Genius) (Hulu)
Diane Warren: Relentless (MasterClass)Nonetheless to See/Underneath Embargo
All the time (nonetheless looking for U.S. distribution)
Andre Is An Fool (nonetheless looking for U.S. distribution)
Architecton (A24)
Artwork for All people (nonetheless looking for U.S. distribution)
Blknws: Phrases & Circumstances (nonetheless looking for U.S. distribution)
Champions of the Golden Valley (nonetheless looking for U.S. distribution)
Coexistence, My Ass! (nonetheless looking for U.S. distribution)
Cowl-Up (nonetheless looking for U.S. distribution)
Reducing By way of Rocks (nonetheless looking for U.S. distribution)
The Courting Recreation (nonetheless looking for U.S. distribution)
Dealing with Struggle (nonetheless looking for U.S. distribution)
Heightened Scrutiny (nonetheless looking for U.S. distribution)
Holding Liat (nonetheless looking for U.S. distribution)
Methods to Construct a Library (nonetheless looking for U.S. distribution)
It’s By no means Over, Jeff Buckley (Magnolia)
Karl (nonetheless looking for U.S. distribution)
The Librarians (Unbiased Lens)
Life After (POV)
Marc by Sofia (A24)
Transfer Ya Physique (nonetheless looking for U.S. distribution)
Mr. No person In opposition to Putin (nonetheless looking for U.S. distribution)
Remake (nonetheless looking for U.S. distribution)
A Savage Artwork: The Life & Cartoons of Pat Oliphant (Magnolia)
Seeds (nonetheless looking for U.S. distribution)
Shari & Lamb Chop (Kino Lorber)
Stiller & Meara: Nothing Is Misplaced (Apple)
Timestamp (nonetheless looking for U.S. distribution)
Zodiac Killer Venture (Music Field) -
Greatest Animated Function
Picture Credit score: Disney Frontrunners
KPop Demon Hunters (Netflix)
Arco (Neon)
In Your Desires (Netflix)
Elio (Disney/Pixar)
Fastened (Netflix)Nonetheless to See/Underneath Embargo
Animal Farm (nonetheless looking for U.S. distribution)
The Dangerous Guys 2 (Common)
ChaO (GKIDS)
Dandelion’s Odyssey (nonetheless looking for U.S. distribution)
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Citadel (Sony)
Canine Man (Common)
Hypergalactic (Charades)
The King of Kings (Angel)
The Legend of Hei 2 (GKIDS)
Lilo & Sew (Disney)
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (GKIDS)
Misplaced in Starlight (Netflix)
A Magnificent Life (Sony Classics)
Ne Zha 2 (A24)
Paddington in Peru (Sony)
Predator: Killer of Killers (Hulu)
Scarlet (Sony Classics)
Smurfs (Paramount)
Sneaks (Briarcliff)
Sew Head (Briarcliff)
The Twits (Netflix)
Zootopia 2 (Disney)
