How To Play Overcard Turns After Examine-Elevating the Flop (Superior Technique)

There are six pure overcard turns: Ac, Advert, Ah, Kc, Kd, Kh.

These playing cards fall into the underside 20% of runouts in your vary. The primary cause is straightforward: they don’t join properly together with your holdings. Most of your flop bluffs utterly miss on these turns.

As an example, let’s evaluate the flop check-raising vary composition with the flip vary composition throughout a couple of particular runouts: 4s, 7h, Kh, and Ah.

Beginning with the air part, right here’s the flop check-raise breakdown:

Ace-highs and worse make up 55.4% of the flop check-raising vary.

Now let’s flip to the opposite runouts:

To make the comparability clearer, Ace-highs and weaker palms symbolize:

• 32.3% of your vary on the 4s flip
• 33.5% of your vary on the 7h flip
• 46.1% of your vary on the Kh flip
• 53.1% of your vary on the Ah flip

So we are able to see that lots of your bluffs enhance on the 4s and 7h turns, whereas most of them stay unimproved on the Kh and Ah turns.

Now right here’s the actually cool half: let’s have a look at how the equilibrium technique performs out—each by way of guess sizing and frequency—on every of those turns:

The less pure bluffs in your vary, the extra aggressive you ought to be. That’s as a result of your vary is weighted towards sturdy, high-equity palms that may (and will) worth guess.

From a broader pattern perspective, the alternative additionally holds true to various levels.

On pure overcard turns, your checking vary finally ends up full of palms which can be dwell attracts to straights or flushes. The problem is that there are just too lots of them to incorporate in your betting vary with out over-bluffing. In consequence, they’re compelled into checks.

However in case you front-load all of your worth bets and steadiness with only some bluffs, these drawing palms stay utterly unprotected—giving the Button room to stab at near 100% frequency and deny your fairness each time.

To optimize fairness realization towards an ideal opponent, the solver reveals it’s essential to examine a good portion of your sturdy and even very sturdy palms.

This strategy handcuffs the Button, stopping them from worth betting too thinly or bluffing too usually. The result’s that your attracts get to appreciate fairness and see the river extra ceaselessly. In truth, on this node the Button must be checking again round 40% of the time—that’s an enormous win for you.

Right here’s a visible of the technique on the Kh flip:

To get essentially the most out of the picture, give attention to the right-hand facet the place you possibly can visually estimate how usually every hand class ought to barrel. For 2-pair and units, the common frequency is available in round 70%.

Earlier than transferring ahead, let’s shortly cowl why the popular guess dimension right here is ~75% pot. There are two principal causes:

1. You don’t maintain the nut benefit—the opponent can have units of Kings whilst you can not.
2. The SPR is low sufficient {that a} 75% flip barrel neatly units up a river shove with out leaving the sizing awkward.

With that basis in place, let’s shift to the Button’s optimum flip stabbing vary. The thought is to determine the baseline first, then present how the technique shifts in case you turn out to be too grasping together with your worth barrels.

If you observe the GTO technique because the Large Blind, the Button responds by stabbing very aggressively—about 63% of the time—largely with a small sizing.

The logic is easy: your vary accommodates a big chunk of non-made palms, which suggests you’re compelled to overfold even towards a one-third pot stab.

Your counter? Examine-raise aggressively together with your slow-played two-pairs and stronger. In truth, the solver reveals the optimum check-raise frequency right here is 23%.

Now let’s have a look at a mannequin the place the Large Blind will get grasping with these two-pairs and higher—barreling them on the prove of worry {that a} flush may arrive on the river. This mindset leak is widespread, however right here’s how the solver punishes it:

Not solely does the Button guess at 100% frequency, however together with your vary capped he additionally ramps up the common sizing—shifting the popular guess to 75%. This occurs as a result of many palms now cross the fairness threshold required to worth guess at that dimension. And keep in mind, I didn’t even pressure the Large Blind to barrel all of his [KsXs] combos, so there are nonetheless a couple of palms left defending the attracts.

The full EV loss when getting exploited like this? 126bb/100. That’s the type of leak that may put an actual dent in your win charge.

Will this all the time occur in actual video games? No. However that doesn’t imply you possibly can ignore it—particularly in case your objective is to maneuver up in stakes, the place the swimming pools are smaller and the common ability stage is way increased.

With that dynamic defined and the Kh flip coated, let’s transfer on to the Ah flip, which performs out as an much more excessive model of the identical state of affairs.

This distinction arises as a result of on the Kh flip you continue to join with a good variety of prime pairs plus flush attracts. In truth, in case you check-raised the identical vary because the solver on the flop, you’ll hit prime pair on the flip about 9.6% of the time.

On the Ah flip, although, the story modifications. Nut flush attracts have much less incentive to check-raise the flop due to their built-in showdown worth. In consequence, you’ll solely make prime pair 2.6% of the time (once more utilizing the identical underlying assumption as within the Kh instance).

With fewer sturdy and really sturdy palms accessible to guard your leftover attracts, the solver compensates by checking them extra usually. On the Ah flip, it’s optimum to examine with 44% of your two-pairs and higher—a notable enhance from ~30% on the Kh flip.

As I wrap up Half III of this collection, I wish to depart you with another actionable step past what we’ve already coated. Don’t restrict this data to enjoying because the Large Blind—you’ve really gained priceless perception for whenever you’re the Button too.

Subsequent time you end up in place, ask: “Is my opponent actually checking 30–50% of his two-pairs and higher right here?” If the reply isn’t any, and also you’re assured in that learn, then you’ve gotten the inexperienced mild to press down onerous on the gasoline.

That’s all for this text! I hope you loved it and picked up one thing new. Within the subsequent installment, we’ll sort out clean turns. They could sound boring, however as you’ll see, there’s loads of edge to be gained there.

Until subsequent time—good luck on the market, grinders!