The UK betting and gaming sector faces a possible financial downturn if new tax hikes go forward, based on unbiased evaluation by EY. Commissioned by the Betting and Gaming Council (BGC), the research warns that proposals from the Social Market Basis (SMF) and the Institute for Public Coverage Analysis (IPPR) might end in tens of 1000’s of job losses, diminished tax income, and an expanded unlawful playing market.
EY’s findings recommend that the proposed tax will increase might remove over 40,000 jobs, shift £8.4 billion in wagers to the black market, and scale back the sector’s financial contribution by £3.1 billion. Regardless of these penalties, the brand new tax charges would generate solely a fraction of the extra income forecasted by their proponents.
At present, the regulated playing trade contributes £6.8 billion to the UK economic system and pays £4 billion in taxes yearly. It helps greater than 109,000 jobs nationwide, with main hubs in Stoke-on-Trent, Manchester, Leeds, Nottingham, Sunderland, and Warrington. The proposed tax measures, nevertheless, might erode this basis, with important repercussions for employees, companies, and native economies.
BGC Chief Govt Grainne Hurst known as the proposed will increase a direct risk to development, stating:
“It’s now clear these additional tax rises are a direct risk to British jobs and financial development. The figures converse for themselves – tens of 1000’s of jobs misplaced, billions diverted to the black market, and a doable £3 billion hit to the economic system. Tax raids like these proposed would imply fewer betting outlets, casinos and bingo halls, fewer jobs, and an enormous enhance to the rising, unsafe playing black market, whereas not elevating wherever close to the tax claimed.”
Affect of Proposed Tax Adjustments
Beneath present rules, UK bookmakers pay tax on Gross Playing Yield (GGY) — the distinction between stakes and buyer winnings — at 21% for on-line gaming, 20% for machine gaming, and 15% for sports activities betting. The suppose tanks suggest elevating these charges to 50% for on-line gaming and 25% for sports activities betting.
EY’s modeling exhibits that the IPPR proposal would remove 40,000 jobs, redirect £8.4 billion in stakes to unregulated operators, and minimize £3.1 billion from the UK’s Gross Worth Added (GVA). The SMF proposal, whereas barely much less extreme, would nonetheless end in 30,200 job losses, an £8.1 billion black market shift, and a £2.5 billion drop in financial output.
Though the IPPR claimed its suggestions might yield £3.2 billion in new tax income, EY estimates the true determine would possible be nearer to £1 billion. As soon as diminished employment, decrease company tax, and different oblique results are thought of, the Treasury’s precise internet achieve might fall to under £500 million.
Trade consultants warning that increased taxes would make the regulated market much less aggressive, driving gamers towards offshore and unlawful operators providing higher odds and promotions. This, they warn, would erode client protections and scale back total tax receipts.
EY additionally highlighted that each suppose tanks failed to contemplate the 2023 Playing Act Evaluation White Paper, which is already projected to chop sector income by £1 billion. Their development assumptions — 31% by 2025 — additionally diverge from EY’s forecast of a modest 4% development between 2023 and 2026.
Trade Response and Wider Implications
The proposed tax hikes have sparked concern throughout the betting trade. One of many operators warned that further levies might result in the closure of its 1,300 betting outlets, threatening almost 7,000 jobs. Entain CEO Stella David additionally cautioned that increased taxes might push extra customers towards the black market, undermining current regulatory safeguards.
Hurst emphasised that secure taxation and balanced regulation are important for sustaining a protected, thriving trade, including:
“Balanced rules and a secure tax regime assure a rising regulated sector. However these proposals would obtain absolutely the reverse of that and undermine the very client protections that preserve folks protected by pushing clients in the direction of the unregulated black market, the place there aren’t any safeguards, no tax receipts, no jobs, and no assist for the sports activities all of us love.”
The EY evaluation concludes that increased tax charges would fail to realize their supposed fiscal targets, as an alternative damaging one of many UK’s most regulated and internationally aggressive industries.
International Gaming Our bodies Unite to Tackle Trade Challenges
A 12 months in the past, the American Gaming Affiliation (AGA), European On line casino Affiliation (ECA), and Betting and Gaming Council (BGC) have joined forces to deal with international points comparable to unlawful playing and accountable gaming by means of a newly signed Memorandum of Understanding (MOU).
The partnership between AGA, ECA, and BGC goals to reinforce collaboration on key subjects, together with trade innovation, participant safety, and cross-border safety. Invoice Miller, AGA President and CEO, described it as “a big step ahead in our collective efforts to advance the authorized gaming trade and defend customers across the globe.”
The settlement lays the groundwork for joint analysis tasks and knowledge-sharing initiatives among the many three associations. One of many first main actions underneath the MOU will probably be a legislation enforcement roundtable in January 2025, centered on combating unlawful playing networks and enhancing coordination between regulators and legislation enforcement businesses.
By uniting underneath a shared imaginative and prescient, the AGA, ECA, and BGC purpose to make sure a safe, accountable, and progressive future for the worldwide gaming trade.
Supply:
“Additional tax raid on betting threatens 40,000 jobs and £3BN blow to UK economic system, warns new evaluation“, bettingandgamingcouncil.com, October 26, 2025.
